Storms formed this afternoon as predicted by models that allow convection, i.e. the HRRR, in areas south of I-20.
At this time, there are four main concentrations of storms.
1. Through northern Sumter to Greene Counties. Storms extend from Geiger to Gainesville to I-20/59 west of Eutaw. The strongest core is between West Greene and Clinton. These storms are spreading north of Union and Aliceville. Expect gusty winds up to 40 mph and pea-sized hail.
2. Weakening storms are moving through Bibb and southeastern Tuscaloosa County, east of Coaling and Brookwood. A developing cell was southwest of Tannehill, in northern Bibb County, and moving southwest of Jefferson. They could be strengthened by an outflow boundary that is moving northward from Shelby County.
3. Storms near Calera are moving northeast toward areas from Columbiana to Chelsea. Pea-sized hail and 40 mph winds are again possible. Storms in eastern Shelby County and southwestern Talladega counties are becoming stronger. They extend from Westover to Harpersville and Pleasant Hill, affecting areas as far as Wilsonville and as far as Vandiver, Sterrett and Vincent. Heavy rain, gusts of wind and small hail are possible.
4. A second round of storms is moving toward Montgomery County, where a flash flood warning is already in effect. Radar estimates from the first batch of storms indicated that 2 to 2.5 inches of rain fell in some parts of Montgomery a little over an hour ago. Rainfall from approaching storms is approaching 1 inch per hour and could exacerbate any local flooding.
Meanwhile, to the west, a line of strong to severe storms is approaching the Alabama border from Mississippi. The HRRR indicates that these storms will reach western and northwest Alabama between 9 and 10 pm and could still be strong to severe. The model also predicts more storms will form ahead of this activity south of Birmingham between 10 and 11 p.m.
A severe storm warning is still in effect over southeastern Mississippi. There is no word from SPC on whether an alert will be issued in Alabama, but there are indications that it is not likely. NWS Birmingham has expanded its marginal risk (level 1/5) to all of its counties, including all of central Alabama.
Additional storms will form and move east and northeast across central Alabama between midnight and 6 am.
Category: Alabama Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather
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