by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Today, the Vermont Department of Labor released data on Vermont’s economy for the period through May 2024. Based on household data, the seasonally adjusted state unemployment rate for May was 2.1 percent. This does not reflect any change from the previous month’s revised estimate. The civilian labor force participation rate was 65.6 percent in May, an increase of one-tenth of a percentage point from the previous month’s revised estimate.
Labor Commissioner Michael Harrington said, “Preliminary data for May 2024 indicates that Vermont’s labor market continues on a stable and consistent path. Employers are hiring, wages have increased and unemployment is low. For example, employment in the accommodation and food service industry is now higher than pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, and more broadly, household survey data estimates that there are nearly 350,000 working Vermonters, which is the largest number in the state’s history. The Department continues to expand its partnerships with employers, training providers and job seekers. Also of note, this week, June 27 in Brattleboro, there will be an Apprenticeship Job Fair at the Department of Labor’s Brattleboro Job Center from 3:30 pm to 5:30 pm For more information on this event , as well as others, visit https://labor.vermont.gov/workforce-development.”
The comparable U.S. rate in May was 4.0 percent, an increase of one-tenth of a percentage point from April’s revised estimate. Vermont’s seasonally adjusted data for May shows that Vermont’s civilian workforce increased by 655 people from the previous month’s revised estimate (see Table 1). The number of employed people increased by 663 and the number of unemployed decreased by 8. None of the changes were statistically significant in the seasonally adjusted series.
May unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 1.7 percent in Burlington-South Burlington, Middlebury and White River Junction to 2.9 percent in Derby (note: unemployment rates of the local labor market area are not seasonally adjusted; see Table 2). .
For comparison, the May unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.0 percent, a decrease of three-tenths of a percentage point from April’s revised unadjusted level and an increase of four-tenths of a point percentage with respect to the previous year.
Seasonal adjustment (Table 3)
Seasonally adjusted May data reported a decline of 100 jobs from revised April data. There was an increase of 200 jobs between the preliminary and revised April estimates due to the inclusion of more data. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes in May varied at the industry level. One industry had a notable increase: Accommodation and food services (+700 jobs or +2.2%). Industries with notable declines included: State Government (-500 jobs or -2.7%) and Professional and Technical Services (-400 jobs or -2.2%).
Without seasonal adjustment (Table 4)
Preliminary ‘non-seasonally adjusted’ employment estimates for May showed a decline of 500 jobs compared to revised April figures. As with seasonally adjusted data, this monthly change comes from revised April numbers, which saw an increase of 200 jobs over preliminary estimates. The broader economic picture can be seen by focusing on the changes evident throughout the year in this data series. As detailed in preliminary non-seasonally adjusted May data, total private industries increased by 6,200 jobs (+2.5%) over the year and government employment (including public education) decreased by 1,800 jobs (+2.5%) -3.2%) last year.
The June Unemployment and Employment Report is scheduled to be published on Friday, July 19, 2024 at 10:00 a.m.
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