It seems like it was just a few weeks ago when Mississippi experienced record cold temperatures, but summer, which doesn’t officially start until June 20, is already here and if you like hot, humid, wet weather, go ahead and jump for joy.
“It’s always hot in Mississippi,” said Michael Hill, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Jackson. “That’s my default answer. It’s going to be hot and humid like always in Mississippi.”
According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center, the odds lean in favor of a hotter-than-average summer, with a 40%-50% chance of being hotter than average during June, July and August.
“It’s going to be hot,” Hill said. “It’s going to be Mississippi, and we need to watch for patterns that could lead to record heat.”
A dry, scorching and expensive summer of 2023
In the summer of 2023, that pattern was established. Daily heat records were broken in Jackson, Hattiesburg and other parts of the state with highs over 100 degrees.
If that weren’t difficult enough to deal with, much of the state went months without appreciable precipitation. That sparked wildfires in parts of the state and burn bans in many counties.
The effects of temperatures hotter than extra-spicy crab boil seasoning and low rainfall in the south didn’t end there. They caused a shortage of crabs and prices skyrocketed.
Other crops also suffered. The USDA declared Mississippi an agricultural disaster due to damaged crops and high costs associated with the drought.
Will Mississippi have a rainy summer?
So far, it doesn’t look like Mississippi will see a repeat of that. Hill said the average annual precipitation so far would normally be just over 27 inches.
“Right now, we have a surplus,” Hill said. “For the Jackson area, our rainfall since January 1st has been 44 inches of rain.
“So we have a surplus of 16.7 inches. That’s the good news for now.”
And that can continue. According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center, most of the state will likely experience above-average precipitation between June and August.
“Hopefully we’ll keep the rains off,” Hill said. “I hope we keep the rains throughout the season so we don’t have to deal with a drought situation.”
Record number of named storms forecast for 2024
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. Forecasters predict 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes classified as Categories 3 to 5. .
“This season looks extraordinary in several ways, based on our data and models, with El Niño and La Niña playing an important role,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said at a news conference. “Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook.”
So what does that mean for Mississippi? Hill said the El Niño weather pattern, which we are currently experiencing, is less conducive to the intensification of named storms. However, that pattern is expected to change to a La Niña pattern, which is not as detrimental to storm intensification.
Hill explained that the question is when will this transition occur? If this happens later in the year, it will be after the time when Mississippi typically experiences its worst hurricanes, which is late August. If it happens before then, it’s a different story.
“If it happens in July, we could be playing ball,” Hill said.
Even if the transition happens soon, there is still no guarantee that Mississippi will be affected, but Hill said people still need to take the situation seriously.
“It only takes one to make it a bad season,” Hill said. “So we need to prepare. We need to prepare every year.”
Do you have an idea for a story? Contact Brian Broom at 601-961-7225 or bbroom@gannett.com.
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