WASHINGTON – The chairwoman of President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign said she does not consider Florida a battleground state in the 2024 election, but is “optimistic” about winning a different state where Donald Trump won the last election: North Carolina.
The Biden campaign talked aggressively about Florida being in play for Biden after the state Supreme Court in March upheld Florida’s strict abortion laws and also cleared the way for a referendum guaranteeing abortion rights to come before Florida voters in the November elections.
But in an interview with Puck News In a statement released Monday, campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said “No,” when asked directly if she sees Florida as a battleground state.
Florida, with 30 electoral votes at stake, last voted Democratic in a presidential election in 2012, when President Barack Obama led Republican Mitt Romney by less than a percentage point. Since then, the state has turned red in both elections. Trump, the former president, defeated Hillary Clinton in Florida by 48.6% to 47.4% in 2016, and widened the margin of victory to 3.3 percentage points over Biden in 2020.
In a statement to KeynoteUSA, the Biden campaign insisted the president can win Florida in November and touted recent campaign investments in the state, including TV ads that will run this week even if the Sunshine State doesn’t win. It is among the main battlefields.
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The Biden campaign, which has 28 employees working in Florida after making 20 additional hires this month, will have 13 offices across Florida by the end of the week. Biden visited Tampa, Florida, in April to discuss abortion access and Vice President Kamala Harris delivered remarks in Jacksonville, Florida, in May.
“Florida is in play for President Biden and Democrats everywhere on the ballot,” Dan Kanninen, swing states director for Biden’s campaign, said in a statement. “The president has a strong story to tell on the issues that matter most to Floridians. That is why our campaign continues to increase our presence and investments in the state.”
Further:Is Florida now in play for Biden? Three conclusions for 2024 from judicial rulings on abortion
Nikki Fried, chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party, echoed that sentiment in a statement: “Florida Democrats are doing the real work needed to take back Florida,” she said, citing the party’s organizing efforts in the state.
“We are not naïve to the challenges ahead, but we are building the foundation for Democratic success, not just for this cycle, but for the years and decades to come. Let’s not count out Florida,” he said.
The most contested states of the 2024 campaign are six swing states that Biden won in 2020: the so-called “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
The Biden campaign has considered North Carolina, which Biden lost by 1.3 percentage points to Trump in 2020, as a potential primary pick – and invested heavily there – while the Trump campaign has talked about flipping two Biden states to enlarge the map: Virginia and Minnesota.
“We have multiple paths to victory,” O’Malley Dillon told Puck News, referring to the 270 electoral votes to secure victory, and then emphasized Tar Heel status in his interview. “I’m bullish on North Carolina, and I’m not mincing words in saying that, because I was bullish on Arizona (four years ago) and that’s because we looked at it so closely.”
Further:The next Georgia? Biden campaign targets North Carolina to reshape 2024 electoral map
Biden turned historically red Arizona into the Democratic column in 2020, becoming the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1996.
Why so optimistic about North Carolina?
North Carolina, which last voted Democratic in 2008 and has 16 electoral votes, is attractive to Biden and Democrats for several reasons.
Biden’s 2020 loss to Trump in North Carolina was the smallest margin of any state he lost. And North Carolina’s burgeoning suburbs with college-educated voters around the “Research Triangle” of Charlotte and Raleigh, combined with its sizable black population, are a similar formula that put Georgia, once a reliably red state, in play for the Democrats.
“We lost it by only 1.3 percentage points in 2020 and we didn’t play there, number one. Number two, obviously, there’s some demographic element, but I don’t think it’s enough,” O’Malley said of North Carolina.
O’Malley Dillon, who was campaign manager during Biden’s 2020 campaign, primarily pointed to the “extreme laws” that have been passed in Republican-controlled North Carolina, including new restrictions on abortion, and a “candidate beyond the extremes that he is running for governor,” referring to Mark Robinson, Republican candidate for governor of North Carolina.
Democrats believe the state’s new abortion law, which bans most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy, will help energize their base. And they believe Biden can benefit from the candidacy of Robinson, a firebrand Republican lieutenant governor with a series of controversial statements. Robinson is running against Josh Stein, North Carolina’s Democratic attorney general, in the race to replace outgoing Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
“If you put all those pieces together…we really see that (North Carolina) is in play,” O’Malley Dillon said.
Trump currently leads Biden in North Carolina by 5.8 percentage points, according to the Real Clear Politics poll average. Trump leads Biden in Florida by 7.6 percentage pointsaccording to survey averages.
Contact Joey Garrison at X @joeygarrison.
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