Growing up in Bozeman, Montana, Dylan Heintz loved the picturesque views of snow-capped mountains and the small-town charm. Things were cheap: His father bought the family home for about $80,000.
Today, Bozeman feels less picturesque. A steady stream of out-of-state moves to Big Sky Country became an avalanche during the pandemic, leading to skyrocketing prices, a boom in luxury apartments obliterating the rustic landscape, and a rush of high-end businesses. level like Whole Foods. Drawn to Montana’s natural beauty and easy access to outdoor activities, newcomers have created an affordability crisis and local backlash that is transforming the state’s economy and politics.
“I love this place, but it’s a tough place to live,” said Mr. Heintz, 28, an auto body repairman. The rent has doubled in his trailer park, and he and his wife can’t afford to buy a house in the city, forcing them to consider moving to Florida. “There are many foreigners who have some money and are willing to pay more than the asking price. “That definitely hurts people.”
The new population of wealthier residents — often retirees, tech workers able to do their jobs remotely, and other immigrants from big cities — is one of the biggest question marks hanging over Montana’s crucial Senate race. . As Jon Tester, the Democratic incumbent, seeks to fend off Tim Sheehy, a businessman and retired Navy SEAL who is expected to win the Republican nomination, tensions over explosive growth will be a major issue in November.
And how the vote of new Montanans could prove decisive.
At first glance, their presence might seem to benefit the embattled Mr. Tester, because a sizable portion of them (35 percent of arrivals in 2022) come from left-wing states such as California, Colorado, Oregon and Washington, according to data from the census analyzed. by the real estate company CBRE. Some political experts, however, believe the newcomers could lean further to the right, pointing to a broader phenomenon in which conservatives have abandoned their home states in part because of what they see as liberal overreach.
“Especially during the pandemic, there was a movement of people from bluer areas looking for a different, more Republican way of life,” said Dr. Jessi Bennion, a political science professor at Montana State University. “My best guess is that a lot of the people moving to the state are those types of transplants.”
Montana has no party registration, so the leanings of these voters remain in dispute.
“It’s an enigma,” Dr. Bennion said. “This upcoming election will show us a lot about the way those voters approach politics.”
Although the surge in transplants has slowed in the last year, it could account for a significant portion of the vote. Between 2020 and 2023, about 52,000 more people arrived in Montana than left, according to the state Department of Labor and Industry; Tester won re-election in 2018 by fewer than 18,000 votes. The state’s total population is just over 1.1 million.
Montana is traditionally conservative but contrarian: It voted resoundingly red at the presidential level, but sent Tester back to the Senate repeatedly and elected Democratic governors to run the state from 2005 to 2020. Still, political strategists and experts say Montana has leaned to the right. in recent years.
Don Kaltschmidt, chairman of the state Republican Party, suggested the influx of new people was a major factor.
“We have a lot of what I call political refugees,” Kaltschmidt said. “There are more conservatives coming out of the blue states.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is dedicated to electing Republicans and backs Sheehy, said its analysis found that about 41 percent of newcomers who had registered to vote in Montana since late 2018 were registered as Republicans in their former states, compared to about 25 percent were registered Democrats.
Democrats dispute that the newcomers overwhelmingly belong to one particular party and say their data is more mixed. They note that Montana’s fastest-growing counties are increasingly left-leaning, suggesting liberals are moving into those areas.
Tester has survived past elections by relying on his bipartisan reputation and experience in rural agriculture to win over Republican voters. Working that charm on the new residents could be vital to staying in office.
Mr. Tester “absolutely has to get that small group of voters who are willing to split their ballot,” Dr. Bennion said.
Jennifer Glad and her husband moved to Bozeman from Redondo Beach, California, in late 2020, drawn by easy ski access and good public schools for their children, but also by a desire to get away from California and its political turn toward the left.
“It’s been back and forth so far, and the policies and taxes and everything that comes with it make it hard to swallow,” said Glad, 47, an attorney who declined to say how she planned to vote in the Senate race. . “I’m tired of crime, of homelessness.” Instead, she said, Bozeman felt “pretty middle-of-the-road.”
Other recent transplants lean left.
Greg Gemette had already been splitting his time between Palm Springs, California, and Bozeman when the pandemic shut down the country. He loved the proximity to the outdoors and the area was less conservative than he feared, so he and her husband decided to make it his permanent home.
“I thought, ‘If the world ends, I might as well die here, because it’s nice,’” said Gemette, 60, an apparel executive who plans to vote for Tester.
Regardless of their politics, foreigners are having a tremendous impact on the local economy. The median home value in Montana reached about $425,000 at the end of last year, a 75 percent increase from five years earlier, according to the state labor department, and the state added 18,450 jobs in 2022, the largest amount in its history. Montana had the fourth-fastest wage growth in the country that year, with an average annual salary of $54,525, an increase of $12,000 from five years earlier.
But residents say increases in property taxes (which rose by an average of 21 percent last year) are putting pressure on their bank accounts and that the cost of food, gas and other necessities has skyrocketed. Even as luxury homes spring up, locals say new affordable housing is in short supply, although Gov. Greg Gianforte, a Republican, has championed a series of new housing policies aimed at alleviating the shortage.
Nowhere has the affordability crisis been felt as acutely as in Bozeman, a city of about 56,000 not far from Yellowstone National Park and the exclusive Big Sky ski community. Bozeman, where the average home sells for about $770,000, has had so many out-of-state arrivals over the years that Montanans sometimes refer to it as “Boz Angeles.”
As luxury rentals in Bozeman spring up next to historic homes and newcomers purchase them, a handful of tents and RVs have begun to populate the city’s outskirts: homeless residents affected by the increase in rents.
Many longtime Montanans bristle at the newcomers, and bumper stickers abound proclaiming some version of “Montana Is Full,” occasionally with an insult attached. Some locals blame the popular television show “Yellowstone” for romanticizing the Mountain West and attracting people to the state.
Bozeman Mayor Terry Cunningham, a nonpartisan position, noted that many of the city’s most permanent residents were themselves immigrants from decades ago, so “turning around and blaming the newcomers is not a fair sport.” ”.
Still, he said, he spends much of his time trying to encourage developers to build affordable housing and navigating community nerves.
“That’s the tension that, frankly, keeps me up at night,” Cunningham said.
It’s no surprise that Montanans, liberal and conservative, disagree about who should be responsible for these problems.
Republicans argue that President Biden is responsible for inflation that has raised the cost of goods and led to a stubbornly expensive housing market. (Economists have said that Biden’s pandemic-era stimulus checks did indeed contribute to rising inflation. Former President Donald J. Trump also signed a round of stimulus checks.) And they note that Tester voted for several laws that contributed to higher inflation, including the stimulus checks and the 2021 package to modernize the nation’s infrastructure.
Democrats – and many county governments – view Gianforte and the Republican-controlled state Legislature as particularly culpable. They argue that the state failed to protect homeowners from the hit of higher taxes when the value of their homes was reassessed.
And they say Sheehy, a billionaire who grew up in Minnesota, epitomizes wealthy foreigners, even though he arrived a decade ago and made his fortune within the state.
“He’s trying to turn our state into a playground for rich immigrants like him,” said Shelbi Dantic, Tester’s campaign manager.
Katie Martin, Sheehy’s campaign spokeswoman, said he and his wife, Carmen, “chose to make Montana their home to raise their family and start a business because it was a place consistent with their values and the way they wanted to live.” . “
Cunningham, who said he had voted for both Democrats and Republicans, remained diplomatic in the Senate race.
He praised a donation Mr. Sheehy made to the local health care system and said he had worked to improve the community. And he said Tester had helped increase funding for low-income housing tax credits.
“I see two people who love their state, love their community and are trying to do good things,” Cunningham said.
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