This article represents the opinion of the Tampa Bay Times editorial board.
Few traditions are as important in Florida as preparing for Atlantic hurricane season. And forecasters largely agree that the 2024 season, which begins this weekend and runs through Nov. 30, could be unusually active. Floridians should prepare early and stay engaged. That’s the price of living in a coastal state where just one storm could be devastating.
Storm experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are calling for an “above average” hurricane season this year, with as many as 25 named storms. Forecasters say up to 13 could become hurricanes and up to seven could reach major status of Category 3 or higher.
The storm forecast is the most aggressive in the federal agency’s history and fits with other experts’ predictions of an above-average season. This is due to warmer than usual Atlantic water temperatures and the emerging La Niña weather pattern, known to be more conducive to hurricane formation than its counterpart, El Niño. The result is that Floridians face a potentially long wake this hurricane season. That makes it essential to start preparing now and stay informed as summer progresses.
Why more storms?
The federal forecast echoes some of the most ambitious outlooks for the hurricane season ever drawn up by renowned climate experts. Colorado State University issued an initial forecast calling for 11 hurricanes, the most the university has ever forecast. The University of Pennsylvania also issued its own aggressive forecast, predicting a record 33 named storms, also citing the warming Atlantic and La Niña.
The waters stretching between the Caribbean and the coast of Africa are at record levels, driven in part by human-induced climate change and the developing La Niña pattern. Experts also hope that fewer biting winds this year will help break up storms. And because rapid intensification, which occurs when a storm’s maximum wind speed increases by 35 mph in a single day, is closely related to ocean temperatures, the result could mean not only more storms, but also more intense ones.
More people too
Emergency managers are not only worried about more storms, but also more people. Florida’s population has exploded in recent years and many new residents did not grow up in hurricane alley. This presents a challenge to educating the public about the impacts of these storms and getting those in danger out of harm’s way.
Florida has more than 22 million residents, about 5 million more than during the active hurricane season 20 years ago. That means millions more are at risk of catastrophic winds and inland flooding, which is why every Floridian everywhere needs a hurricane plan ahead of time. Check your evacuation zone. Get a tote bag for important documents, like insurance policies. And make an evacuation plan in case you have to go out. Take special consideration if you are caring for a child, elderly person, or pet. In most cases, moving a short distance to a sturdier shelter with friends or family is enough. But these are not plans to be finalized at the last minute.
Spend your days with Hayes
Subscribe to our free Stephinitely newsletter
Columnist Stephanie Hayes will share thoughts, feelings and fun things with you every Monday.
You are all registered!
Want more of our free weekly newsletters in your inbox? Let us begin.
Explore all your options
Store the basics
Meteorologists at Colorado State University predicted a better than 50% chance of a named storm detouring within 50 miles of Hillsborough and Pinellas counties this season. The probability of winds or rain caused by a hurricane is around 25% locally. In other words, even a superficial hit could impact the region, disrupting electrical service, water and gas supplies, and other essential elements of daily life.
Use the first few days of the season to stock up on bottled water, canned goods, batteries, non-perishables, and pet food. Review your prescriptions and, if possible, save some cash. (ATMs and card readers do not operate without power.) Keep chargers for cell phones and other electronic devices on hand, and gather flashlights in one place. Completing these tasks beforehand will ease anxiety and leave more time to secure a home if a storm is approaching. You can always eat that canned soup later or donate it to a charity.
These simple steps are familiar to most Floridians and are some of the best precautions against Mother Nature. Floridians should also be especially patient this year to protect themselves against hurricane fatigue. The number of storms will be the number. But at least now we can prepare to help ourselves and our neighbors.
Editorials are the institutional voice of the Tampa Bay Times. Editorial board members include Editorial Editor Graham Brink, Sherri Day, Sebastian Dortch, John Hill, Jim Verhulst, and President and CEO Conan Gallaty. Continue @TBTimes_Opinion on Twitter for more opinion news.
Keynote USA
For the Latest Local News, Follow Keynote USA Local on Twitter.