“Swift swings” takes a quick look at an economic trend.
The number: California is suffering the nation’s second-largest drop in job openings since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates two years ago.
The fountain: My trusty spreadsheet analyzed job openings for all 50 states and Washington, DC, for March (the latest available) and compared them to March 2022.
The why: The Federal Reserve began its battle against the highest inflation in four decades in March, using more expensive financing to cool an overheated economy. Therefore, we also analyzed the 2018-19 pre-pandemic period as a measure of “normal” hiring patterns.
Quick analysis
California had the second-highest number of vacancies in the country in March 2024: 734,000, or 9% of the U.S. total of 8.3 million. Texas took first place with 807,000. Florida came in third with 543,000, followed by New York with 532,000 and Illinois with 385,000.
If you want to see an example of how effective the Fed has been in cooling the economy, consider how many workers bosses say they need, now compared to two years ago.
Job postings in California have fallen 42% since March 2022. It’s not just this state, however, as there has been a 31% decline nationally.
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In percentage terms, California had the second largest drop. The largest drop occurred in Kentucky, with 43%. In third place was Arizona, followed by Pennsylvania and then Tennessee, with a 40% discount.
All states saw fewer vacancies since the Federal Reserve acted. Colorado had the smallest decrease at 8%, then Kansas at 11%, New Jersey at 12%, Oklahoma at 14%, and Illinois at 16%.
Among California’s economic rivals: Texas ranked 21st, with a 26% discount, and Florida ranked 40th, with a 33% discount.
Bottom line
You can’t just blame the Federal Reserve.
Two years ago, job postings had skyrocketed as many bosses across the country tried to replenish staff that was reduced due to pandemic business constraints.
As those staffing needs dried up, there were employers who added too many workers in that 2021-22 hiring wave. They are now realigning their workforce to cope with the colder economic climate of 2024.
All of these twists make job opportunities in California in early 2024 look a little like the pre-pandemic days of 2018-19.
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California’s March openings were 4% below the 2018-19 average, but that’s the sixth-worst performance among states. Note that national vacancies increased by 16% in this period.
Larger drops were found in Hawaii, down 10%, then Ohio, down 9%, North Dakota, down 8%, and North Carolina and Arizona, down 5%.
Additionally, 43 states have more vacancies than in 2018-19, led by South Carolina, up 50%, Oklahoma and New Jersey, up 41%, and Texas and Maryland, up 39%. Note: Florida ranked 18th with a 28% gain.
Jonathan Lansner is a business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be contacted at jlansner@scng.com
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