Washington – Incumbent dominance in the 2024 congressional primaries will be tested in Virginia on Tuesday.
As Virginia Democrats head to the polls to fill two vacant seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, Republican voters could replace House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good, who faces a primary challenge in the U.S. 5th District. Congress. Former President Donald Trump endorsed his rival, state Sen. John McGuire, highlighting the balancing act that the most ideologically strident members of Congress must perform to stay on Trump’s good side. Good endorsed one of Trump’s early rivals, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in this year’s presidential primary.
If Good loses, he would be the first House incumbent to face a primary challenge this year, with the exception of a race in which two incumbents faced off due to redistricting.
Good was also among eight Republicans who voted to unseat then-President Kevin McCarthy, who has allies in the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group that says it is “dedicated to working to enact common-sense legislation.” The House Republican-affiliated super PAC, Defending Main Street, aired ads supporting McGuire, while a super PAC affiliated with the Freedom Caucus aired ads supporting Good.
Good previously won the nomination for his seat through a convention, where only state delegates vote for the candidate. This will be the first time Good has run for this seat in a traditional primary, with an electorate that spans beyond the party’s most active participants.
Although Trump endorsed his opponent, Good is campaigning on his loyalty to Trump, even appearing at his trial in New York. Trump handily won the 5th District in 2020 and 2016.
In the 7th Congressional District, Democrats will choose their candidate to replace Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor in 2025. Eugene Vindman, a former National Security Council ethics lawyer, had raised about 15 times more than his closest rival until May 29. Vindman is popular among Democratic activists because of his involvement in covering a 2019 call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that led to Trump’s first impeachment.
The Republican primary has pitted members of the House Freedom Caucus, who support Navy veteran Cameron Hamilton, against members of the House leadership, who support Army veteran Derrick Anderson.
In District 10, Democrats are choosing a successor to Rep. Jennifer Wexton, who is not running for re-election after being diagnosed with a brain disease. A dozen Democrats are running to replace her.
In the 2nd District, two Democrats are on the ballot to take on Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in a district that Joe Biden narrowly won in the 2020 presidential race against Trump. Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal is the top fundraiser in the primary, with backing from former governors. Ralph Northam and Terry McAuliffe, along with Spanberger and Wexton. She faces off against constitutional law attorney Jake Denton.
In the US Senate, Trump endorsed Navy veteran Hung Cao for the Republican nomination. Cao faces Scott Parkinson, who has the backing of Good and several US senators and representatives. Constitutional lawyer and conservative columnist Jonathan Emord had spent nearly $900,000 on the primary as of the final filing deadline, just ahead of Parkinson, who spent $600,000, but far behind Cao, who had spent nearly $2. 4 million dollars. Army veteran Eddie Garcia and Navy veteran Chuck Smith are also on the ballot.
Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:
PRIMARY DAY
The primaries will be held on Tuesday. Polls close at 7 pm ET.
WHAT’S INSIDE THE TICKET?
The KeynoteUSA will cover 10 contested races: six Democratic primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives, three Republican primaries for the House of Representatives and one Republican primary for the U.S. Senate.
WHO CAN VOTE
Virginia has an open primary system, meaning any registered voter can choose to participate in a party’s primary.
DECISION NOTES
In the 5th Congressional District, Good’s support base is in the central and western parts of the district around Lynchburg and Campbell County, where he previously served on the board of supervisors. In the state Senate, McGuire represents counties in the northeastern part of the district, including Powhatan and Goochland counties and parts of Hanover County. A potentially deciding factor in the race is which candidate dominates the more moderate and highly educated areas around Charlottesville and parts of Albemarle County.
In District 7, the Democratic field includes four current and former Prince William County elected officials, which makes up more than a third of the district and could be a deciding factor in the race: former state delegate Elizabeth Guzmán, state delegate Elizabeth Guzmán, former state delegate Elizabeth Guzmán and former state delegate Elizabeth Guzmán. Briana Sewell and County Board of Supervisors members Andrea Bailey and Margaret Franklin. Two other Democratic candidates, military veterans Carl Bedell and Cliff Heinzer, have not held office.
In the Republican primary, Anderson led Republicans in fundraising until the final filing deadline, raising $1.1 million. Hamilton raised $722,000.
Loudoun County makes up the majority of the 10th Congressional District, which also includes parts of Prince William County and a portion of Fairfax County. State Del. Dan Helmer is the top fundraiser in the race. Helmer and state Sen. Jennifer Boysko represent part of Fairfax County, as does former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn.
Wexton endorsed state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, a former Obama administration political adviser who represents parts of Loudoun County. Del. David Reid also represents Loudoun. Loudoun County resident Krystle Kaul is a newcomer to politics, but she has loaned her campaign more than $500,000.
Former Virginia Secretary of Education Atif Qarni lives in Manassas, which belongs to the district, and the state of Del. Michelle Maldonado represents Manassas, Manassas Park and part of Prince William County.
There are a handful of other candidates on the ballot who could further split the vote, lowering the threshold a candidate needs to win a plurality of votes and making the race especially unpredictable.
The KeynoteUSA does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it is determined that there is no scenario that allows lagging candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the KeynoteUSA will continue to cover any newsworthy events, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, KeynoteUSA will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and will explain why.
In Virginia, a candidate can request a recount if the margin separating two candidates is less than 1 percentage point.
WHAT ARE PARTICIPATION AND EARLY VOTING LIKE?
As of June 1, there were 6,230,102 registered voters in Virginia. Voters in Virginia do not register with any political party.
In the 2022 Republican primary election, turnout was 7% of registered voters in the 2nd and 7th congressional districts. In the 8th District Democratic primary, turnout was 10%.
In the 2024 presidential race, 44% of Democratic primary votes and 16% of Republican votes were cast before Election Day.
As of Wednesday, a total of 92,600 early votes had been cast in the Democratic primary, including about 69% of mail-in votes and 31% of in-person absentee votes. In the Republican primary, 57,881 early votes were cast, including 55% mail-in votes and 45% in-person absentee votes.
HOW LONG DOES COUNTING VOTES GENERALLY TAKE?
In the 2022 7th District Republican primary election, the KeynoteUSA first reported results at 7:10 p.m. ET, or 10 minutes after polls closed. Election night tabulation ended at 9:15 pm ET with more than 99% of the total votes counted.
ARE WE HERE ALREADY?
As of Tuesday, there will be 140 days until the November general election.
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Follow KeynoteUSA’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
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KeynoteUSA writer Matthew Barakat in Falls Church, Virginia, contributed to this report.
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