The Meteorological Summer begins on June 1 and the Astronomical Summer on June 20.
The last two summers in Arkansas have featured many triple-digit days and much higher than normal temperatures. The summers of 2022 and 2023 finished in the top 10 hottest ever recorded!
Will this summer bring record heat again or will we finally see temperatures a little closer to normal?
Making long-term forecasts is extremely difficult at any time of year, but during the summer it is even more difficult. It is more challenging because there are very few atmospheric forcings that affect Arkansas’ climate in the summer. In winter, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a substantial impact on our climate. ENSO is the main information I used to make my 2023-2024 winter outlook.
Arkansas Storm Team Weather Blog: Here’s Your Outlook for Winter 2023-2024!
ENSO is an ocean current in the Pacific and is expected to move into its cold phase this summer. The cold phase is known as La Niña.
The National Hurricane Center said La Niña would likely lead to a more active Atlantic hurricane season.
Arkansas Storm Team Weather Blog: 2024 Hurricane Season Forecast
If La Niña has an impact on hurricane season, then it could have some impact on our summer weather here in Arkansas.
I went back and looked at the weather data for all the years since 1950 that we were experiencing La Niña. Of those 74 years, 16 of them were years in which ENSO was in its La Niña phase.
As I expected, there is very little correlation between the data.
The average temperature of La Niña summers does not show any trend. Little Rock experienced 8 summers with below average temperatures and 8 summers with above average temperatures.
From the graph above you can see that most of the below-average summers occurred in the 1950s and 1970s, and most of the above-average summers occurred in the 2000s. This is likely due to the warming that has experienced the Earth in the last 60 years, and not La Niña.
There is a slight correlation in the precipitation data. Little Rock recorded above-average precipitation during 10 of the 16 La Niña summers.
Using all this information, This summer is likely to feature slightly above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation.
Again, these long-range forecasts are difficult, and long-range summer forecasts are even more difficult. Either way…it’s Arkansas…so it’s going to be very hot and humid all summer long!
Thank you for trusting the Arkansas Storm Team for all your weather information!
If you have a weather topic you would like to learn about, email me at alibby@kark.com
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