Last week, a tropical storm brought heavy rain to parts of Florida. This week, AccuWeather hurricane experts are monitoring tropical development in three separate areas across the Atlantic basin, all of which have the potential to bring tropical impacts to the United States.
The first and most concerning location for tropical activity is the Bay of Campeche, which AccuWeather began highlighting as high risk Thursday afternoon. Since then, AccuWeather experts have highlighted two other areas near the bear monitoring area in the southern United States this week. It is possible that one of them will become Alberto and be the first named storm of the season.
AccuWeather hurricane experts continue to warn of a high probability of development in the western Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.
“The very warm waters in this area of the Gulf, as well as low wind shear, will make this a conducive environment for the formation of a tropical system,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said of the tropical potential.
A broad, swirling area of clouds and rain is expected to become more defined early this week in that area due to these factors, and may even strengthen into a depression or tropical storm. If it reached tropical storm status, with sustained winds of 60 km/h or more, it could be given the name Alberto.
However, limited time over water and proximity to land will limit the potential for a tropical system to rapidly intensify. And, like last week’s tropical storm that flooded parts of Florida, 39 mph wind gusts are not required for a storm to have an impact.
“Whether or not a more structured tropical system develops in the western Gulf of Mexico, a plume of deep, rich tropical moisture is expected to reach Texas and Louisiana by midweek,” Pydynowski explained.
A wet commute is expected Monday morning along the Interstate 10 corridor from New Orleans to Houston as rain threatens to slow travel, reduce visibility and cause flooding. The rain is forecast to continue into Wednesday before some of the heaviest downpours move north through the Mississippi River Valley and west into more parts of Texas.
The ample supply of tropical moisture could allow rainfall totals to accumulate quickly, bringing the risk of more than half a foot of rain to parts of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts. A 30-inch AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is possible in the hardest hit areas, resulting in road closures.
The Houston area has already seen more than 6 inches of rain during the first half of June, which is a more typical amount for the entire month. This new round of heavy rain in the already soggy area could bring new flooding problems for Southeast Texas.
Other areas along the Gulf Coast could benefit from the rain. Brownsville, Texas. So far in June, there has only been 0.47 millimeters of rain, 14% of the historical average. In New Orleans, only 10% of the month’s rain fell in the first 15 days of June. In these areas, the ground may be so dry from the lack of recent rain that flash flooding could occur in the heaviest downpours.
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Behind this wave of tropical rain, it is not ruled out that another tropical system could form near the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico by the end of the week.
“With warm waters and low shear still present over the southern GOM and northwestern Caribbean next weekend, yet another opportunity for tropical development may present itself,” Pydynowski warned.
Depending on the wind pattern in the atmosphere, moisture from this area may be funneled back toward the Gulf Coast during the last week of June. Given the rain forecast for next week, the risk of localized flooding may increase.
As the middle of the week approaches, another area could see a tropical system developing, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
“This appears to be a compact, fast-moving area of low pressure that will move westward into northeastern Florida or perhaps as far north as southeastern Georgia on Thursday,” Pydynowski said.
A stronger storm could bring gusty winds, especially in coastal areas. But even a less organized storm would bring heavy waves and downpours from the northern Bahamas to the southeastern Atlantic coast.
Heavy tropical rain may affect some of the same areas that were hit by last week’s tropical storm. The highest rainfall totals are likely to occur in North Miami, which had more than 11 inches of rain, and the city of Aventura, where 20 inches of rain fell. Instead, places from Melbourne, Florida, to Charleston, South Carolina, may be at greater risk for heavy rain.
The area currently primed for the heaviest rain has had very little rain so far this month, including Jacksonville, Florida, which has only reported 0.64 inches.
Forecasters will continue to monitor development potential in all three areas throughout the week.
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