The news that former President Donald Trump was convicted of 34 felonies for concealing money payments to a porn star has only hardened opinions about the 45th president, strengthening the resolve of both his devoted supporters and opponents.
But the impact of the jury’s verdict on the smaller number of undecided voters remains to be seen and could decide the outcome of the November vote, in Maine and across the country.
“It’s too early to say exactly what results to expect,” said Ronald Schmidt, a political science professor and chair of the political science department at the University of Southern Maine. “When it comes to issues of public opinion, there is a lot of time between now and the election.”
The polls, while only a snapshot in time and not predictive, suggest that many voters have already decided who they will vote for in this fall’s presidential election. But some polls suggest the guilty verdict could force some people to change their minds. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted in May, for example, found that 6% of Trump supporters would be less likely to stick with him if they were convicted.
No recent public survey has been conducted in Maine. But a fall “Critical Insights on Maine” survey by Digital Research Inc. found that 19% of respondents said they were undecided, while 39% were “very dissatisfied” with the choice between Trump and President Biden.
The University of New Hampshire Poll Center conducted surveys this month in New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. In New Hampshire, only 8% of respondents said they were undecided, 39% said a guilty verdict in the hush money trial would have no impact on their decision, 37% said it would make them less likely to vote for Trump and 23% said they were undecided. saying that would make them more likely to vote for him.
National polls suggest that undecided voters represent between 2% and 5% of the electorate, potentially enough to determine the outcome in an extremely close election.
Nicholas Jacobs, an assistant professor of government at Colby College, said he’s not sure whether the first felony conviction against a former U.S. president will have any impact on undecided voters.
Jacobs pointed to a national Marist/NPR poll in April that found that a majority of Americans, including 57% of independents, were not following the hush money trial very closely, and about half of independents said they believed that Trump investigations were “unfair investigations.”
“Part of me thinks this is unprecedented and will make a difference, even though we don’t have solid data or experience to know exactly what it will be like. Part of me thinks it won’t be like that,” Jacobs said. “Voters are complex. They justify things in their own way. General dissatisfaction is rampant among those who will decide the elections and that is not something that most of us who follow politics closely (or read news articles about politics) necessarily feel.”
The potential impact in Maine is even more complicated.
PERSUADABLE VOTERS
Maine is one of two states that splits its electoral votes. One electoral vote is awarded to the winner of each of the state’s two electoral districts and two to the winner at the state level.
In 2020, Biden won three electoral college votes, while Trump won one by winning the more conservative and rural 2nd Congressional District.
While the number of voters who can be persuaded may be small, Schmidt said they could make a big difference in the November election.
“We’ve had incredibly narrow margins of victory, so small numbers can be incredibly decisive,” he said.
Schmidt said other factors related to the trial, including Trump’s sentencing, could further motivate each candidate’s supporters to run in the fall. It gives Trump a way to continue connecting with his base over a variety of grievances, he said, while heated rhetoric over the verdict and backlash against the justice system or juries could push young Democrats disillusioned by the war. between Israel and Hamas to return to the Biden presidency. corner.
“Participation is always a big problem,” he said.
Phil Harriman, a former Maine Republican lawmaker and political analyst, said Trump’s $35 million fundraising just hours after the guilty verdict shows how the verdict has energized his base. He thinks persuadable independent voters will be forced to weigh their opinions about Trump’s behavior and character against what he believes are legitimate judicial and constitutional concerns.
“Those are going to be the most influential people in this election,” Harriman said. “I don’t really have a precise idea of which way that falls (broadly speaking).”
He added: “This is not going to be pleasant for our country, but we are in one of the most difficult times for our country and what does the Constitution really mean at the end of the day? “We’re about to find out.”
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