WASHINGTON – Voters in the key state of Nevada are leading polls for the second (or, in some cases, third) time this year to select candidates who will appear in some of the most competitive legislative races this fall.
After holding presidential primaries and a presidential caucus in February, Nevadans will vote in primaries for Congress and the state legislature on Tuesday. The state’s congressional delegation is currently made up of five Democrats and one Republican. Tuesday’s most important elections include the Republican primaries for the Senate and in the three congressional districts controlled by Democrats.
First-term Sen. Jacky Rosen, whose seat will likely be among the key ones determining the balance of power in the Senate in the fall, faces two Democratic challengers: Program Director Troy Walker and Taxpayer Advocate , Mike Schaefer. He has significantly outperformed his current and potential opponents, with over $10 million available. The next best-funded candidate, Republican Sam Brown, has raised $7 million this cycle and spent $4.6 million of it.
Brown, an Army veteran who unsuccessfully sought the Senate nomination in Nevada last cycle, and former ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, are the only two Republican Senate candidates to have raised at least $1 million. Brown has more partisan support, with the backing of the state’s Republican governor, Joe Lombardo, and the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The crowded field also includes Jim Marchant, a prominent supporter of former President Donald Trump and promoter of the false narrative about fraud in the 2020 election. Trump has not yet endorsed any candidate in the race.
There are also key races for Nevada’s 1st, 3rd and 4th congressional districts on the Republican side. Those three districts include at least part of Clark County, home of Las Vegas, and are currently represented by Democratic incumbents Dina Titus, Susie Lee and Steven Horsford. Second District incumbent Mark Amodei faces a cash-strapped challenger, and Democrats are not fielding a candidate in the conservative district.
The former is considered the safest for the incumbent, as Titus is the state’s longest-serving Democratic representative and had one of the largest margins of victory in 2022 at 6 percentage points. Still, that hasn’t stopped the business’s owner, Flemming Larsen, from lending his campaign $1.5 million. The field also includes Mark Robertson, a retired Army colonel who lost to Titus in 2022.
There are seven Republicans seeking the nomination in the 3rd District, which is potentially the most competitive race in the state. The top fundraiser is former Nevada State Treasurer Daniel Schwartz. His opponents include former state Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien, who presents herself as a strong Trump supporter with the backing of Marchant and Trump advisers Roger Stone and Michael Flynn.
The 4th District has the smallest field, with only three candidates. Financial advisor and veteran David Flippo has outspent former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee. Lee also previously served in the state legislature as a Democrat: he changed his party affiliation to Republican in 2022. Flippo sought a seat in the state assembly in 2022, but fell short in the Republican primary.
Here’s a look at what to expect on primary night:
PRIMARY DAY
The Nevada state primary will take place on Tuesday. Polls close at 10 pm ET.
WHAT’S INSIDE THE TICKET?
The KeynoteUSA will provide voting coverage and declare winners in 43 contested primaries for Senate, House, State Senate, State Assembly and Washoe County Commissioner. The key races are the Democratic and Republican primaries for the Senate, as well as the Republican primaries for the First, Third and Fourth House districts.
WHO CAN VOTE
Registered party members can only vote in their own party’s primaries. In other words, Democrats cannot vote in Republican primaries or vice versa. Nevada also has same-day registration, allowing new voters to register at the polls on Tuesday or during the early voting period.
DECISION NOTES
The top county in state elections (and most congressional elections) is Clark County, home to nearly 3 of every 4 Nevada residents. The 1st and 3rd districts are located entirely within Clark, while the 4th includes the northern suburbs of Las Vegas plus at least part of five other counties.
Nevada is generally among the slowest counting states. Every voter in Nevada automatically receives a mail-in ballot unless they opt out, and county officials will accept mail-in ballots up to four days after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked on or before Election Day. Since mail-in ballots will continue to arrive through June 15, a close race in which the number of mail-in ballots could affect the outcome could delay the calling of a race.
This year, the Secretary of State has encouraged counties to begin tabulating in-person Election Day votes and mail-in ballots that arrive before Election Day during the early voting period. These recommendations are intended to lead to the publication of more results more quickly. Early voting began on May 25 and ended on June 7.
Regardless of how many ballots are tabulated at the close of voting, Nevada will not release any results until the last voter in line at the close of voting has cast their vote. Because of this rule, the state will often need at least an hour after polls close to ensure everyone has a chance to vote before releasing initial results.
The ballots include the “none of these candidates” option (a selection Republican voters made on a notable scale in February’s presidential primaries). However, in the event that the candidate with the highest number of votes in a primary is “none of these candidates,” the second highest vote-getter candidate would advance to the general election and KeynoteUSA would therefore declare that candidate winner.
The KeynoteUSA does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it is determined that there is no scenario that allows lagging candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the KeynoteUSA will continue to cover any newsworthy events, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, KeynoteUSA will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and will explain why.
Nevada does not have an automatic recount law, but candidates can request and pay for a recount within three days of counting at the county or state level.
WHAT ARE PARTICIPATION AND EARLY VOTING LIKE?
As of January 1, there were 2,278,385 registered voters in Nevada. Of them, 31% were Democrats, 28% Republicans and 34% independents.
In the February presidential primary, turnout was 19% of approximately 703,000 registered voters in the Democratic primary and 13% of approximately 639,000 registered voters in the Republican primary. Nevada Republicans held a primary and caucus in February, and while registered Republicans were able to vote in both, Trump only showed up for the caucuses. About 90% of Democratic votes and 85% of Republican votes in the primary elections were cast by mail or before Election Day.
In addition to a week-long in-person early voting period, all registered voters in Nevada receive a primary ballot by mail, unless they opt out. As of June 5, a total of 188,846 people had cast their votes before Election Day. About 45% were elected to the Democratic primaries and 40% to the Republican primaries.
HOW LONG DOES COUNTING VOTES GENERALLY TAKE?
In the February 6 presidential primary, KeynoteUSA first reported results at 11:37 p.m. ET, or one hour and 37 minutes after polls closed. Election night tabulation ended at 4:36 a.m. ET with about 84% of the total votes counted.
ARE WE HERE ALREADY?
As of Tuesday, there will be 147 days until the November general election.
Keynote USA
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