NEWPORT, R.I. (KeynoteUSA) – President Biden has a single-digit lead over former President Trump in Rhode Island, according to a new poll released Tuesday, while Gov. Dan McKee’s job approval rating has taken a hit.
The Salve Regina University survey Pell Center surveyed 1,450 Rhode Island voters who said they were likely to vote in the November election, asking them their current opinions on a number of sitting elected officials, as well as how they plan to vote in some key races this fall.
The poll shows a surprisingly close presidential race in Rhode Island, a reliably blue state that has voted for the Democratic candidate every four years since 1988. The poll shows Biden at 40%, Trump at 33% and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with 12%, with approximately one in 10 voters undecided.
“I’m really surprised by this number,” said 12 News political analyst Joe Fleming, who has been polling the state for years but was not involved in the Pell Center survey.
Biden’s weakness is due in part to his low support among Rhode Island Democrats, only 72% of whom support their party’s incumbent. That compares to 87% support for Trump among Rhode Island Republicans.
Kennedy, a legendary political name in southern New England, is supported by 8% of Democrats and 17% of independents in the poll. Among independents, Rhode Island’s largest voting bloc, Trump wins with 39% and Biden with 25%.
“This shows that there could be a closer race in Rhode Island than people expect,” Fleming said. “However, we are still in June. And the one thing I know in Rhode Island from past history is that Democrats tend to come home toward the end.”
The survey was conducted online and via text message by Embold Research, the nonpartisan arm of the San Francisco-based firm Change Research, from June 5-14. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
The president fared much better in a different survey of Rhode Island voters released by the University of New Hampshire last month. That poll showed Biden at 52%, Trump at 33% and Kennedy at 6%, with only 5% of voters undecided.
Biden won Rhode Island in the 2020 election with 59% of the vote, while Trump got 39%. The two men will face off in this year’s first presidential debate on Thursday at 9 p.m., the first television debate since the practice began in 1960.
Biden’s weak performance against Trump in the poll is also reflected in his job approval rating. Only 42% of likely Rhode Island voters approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 54% disapprove, including a whopping 44% who say they “strongly disapprove” of Biden’s performance.
However, lack of enthusiasm for Biden is not the same as enthusiasm for Trump. Among likely Rhode Island voters, 57% believe the New York jury that convicted Trump in the recent “hush money” trial made the right decision, while only 35% believe the jury was wrong, according to the survey.
Washington Bridge crisis weighs on McKee
Less than two years after winning a full four-year term as governor, McKee is getting low marks from Rhode Islanders in the Pell Center survey.
The poll finds that only 36% of likely voters approve of the job McKee is doing as governor, while 54% disapprove. About one in three voters (32%) say they “strongly disapprove” of McKee’s performance, compared to just 8% who say they “strongly approve.”
“He’s got to go out and sell what he’s been doing much better than he’s ever done,” Fleming said.
Opinions are even more negative about how McKee has handled the biggest crisis he has faced in the past six months, the abrupt closure of the westbound Washington Bridge.
The Pell Center poll shows that 59% of likely voters disapprove of how McKee has handled the bridge closure to date, while only 29% approve. Even among McKee’s fellow Democrats, only 43% approve of how he has handled the bridge crisis.
The poll shows that 60% of likely Rhode Island voters believe the state is headed in the wrong direction, while 40% believe the state is headed in the right direction.
Under Rhode Island’s term limit rules, McKee is eligible to run for another term in 2026 because his first two years as governor were spent finishing Gina Raimondo’s still-pending second term. In an interview last week on 12 News at 4, McKee indicated that he plans to run again.
“We have a Rhode Island plan for 2030,” McKee said, adding, “All told, it’s certainly not an announcement, but my intention is to see that plan through 2030.”
Fleming said McKee and his advisers have reason to be optimistic despite the poll results, noting that Raimondo faced low job approval ratings for much of his tenure but still managed to win re-election in 2018.
“It’s too early for this,” he said.
Most other elected Democrats fared better in the survey than McKee and Biden.
U.S. Senator Jack Reed, always Rhode Island’s most popular politician, took that crown once again. The poll shows that 58% of likely voters approve of the job Reed is doing as senator, while only 28% disapprove. (Reed is the next candidate up for re-election in 2026.)
U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, up for re-election this year, once again performed lower than his high-ranking counterpart. The poll shows that 48% of likely voters approve of the job Whitehouse is doing as senator, while 38% disapprove.
Rhode Island’s two freshman congressmen, Gabe Amo and Seth Magaziner, are in good form with voters as they prepare to seek re-election for the first time, although they remain less well-known than older Democrats.
In the 1st Congressional District, 42% of likely voters approve of the early performance of Amo, who won a special election last fall to succeed David Cicilline, compared to 27% who disapprove. In the 2nd District, 51% of likely voters approve of Magaziner’s job performance, compared to 31% who disapprove.
Amo, who had never held office before being elected to Congress, remains less well known than Magaziner. Nearly one in three 1st District voters had no opinion on Amo, compared to just 18% of 2nd District voters who were unsure about Magaziner.
Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos has the lowest job approval rating of any elected official in the survey, following the signature scandal that rocked her failed congressional campaign last year. Only 27% of likely voters approve of the job Matos is doing, while 39% disapprove and 35% don’t know.
Democrats lead RI congressional races
The poll shows that all Democrats in Rhode Island’s federal delegation are in good shape to win in November.
In the U.S. Senate race, Whitehouse has the support of 48% of likely voters, while 34% say they will back the “Republican nominee.” (State Rep. Patricia Morgan and Ray McKay of Warwick are vying for the Republican nomination.) Whitehouse won his last reelection race, in 2018, with 61% of the vote.
In the 1st Congressional District, Amo has the support of 50% of likely voters, while 29% support his potential Republican rival Allen Waters. In the 2nd District, Magaziner has the support of 47% of likely voters, while 33% back his Republican opponent Steve Corvi.
The Pell Center also asked voters a variety of questions beyond specific candidates and races. Katie Sonder, associate director and fellow at the Pell Center, who oversaw the survey, said, “The results of this survey paint a picture of a somewhat anxious electorate.”
While Rhode Island voters are patriotic about the nation (71% said their American identity is “very important” to them, compared to just 40% who said the same about their Rhode Island identity), most are concerned about the country politically. Among likely voters, 38% say American democracy is “not at all” healthy and 22% say it is only “slightly” healthy, while 28% say it is “moderately” healthy.
Most likely voters think political polarization has increased over the past year, and nearly half blame “misinformation and fake news” for that fact. More than a third of voters say they actively try to avoid the news.
Ted Nesi (tnesi@wpri.com) is an investigative reporter for Target 12 and politics and business editor for 12 News. He co-hosts Newsmakers and writes Nesi’s Notes on Saturdays. Connect with him on Twitter, Threads and Facebook.
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