![The Inaccuracy of Fuzzy Math and New Hampshire’s Unique Qualities The Inaccuracy of Fuzzy Math and New Hampshire’s Unique Qualities](https://i0.wp.com/energynews.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/chris-sununu.jpg?fit=2048%2C1365&ssl=1)
If you’re not familiar with New England, two important things to know are: A) electricity is expensive there and B) New Hampshire is a little different.
And while every state in the region has taken steps to reduce emissions, New Hampshire’s efforts have been more modest, in keeping with the state’s long-standing ethos of limited government.
Gov. Chris Sununu tried to capitalize on that distinction last week in a press release, which included the following chart, which appeared to show dramatic rate increases in neighboring states while New Hampshire’s rates remained stable:
“While other states have let politics drive policy, New Hampshire has always put the taxpayer’s bottom line first,” the governor stated, “…and because of that, residential customers across New Hampshire have benefited.” “.
Sununu’s administration made a similar claim in the state’s 2022 energy plan, blaming neighboring states for rising electricity prices, which were mainly due to a global shortage of natural gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But let’s go back to that graph. What exactly does “increased costs compared to NH” mean? What does this graph actually measure?
On Friday, Boston Globe reporters Steven Porter and Amanda Gokee took a closer look at Sununu’s math and found it to be misleading in three critical ways:
It uses a strange calculation: The governor’s statement takes the monetary amount of rate increases for different states and then calculates the percentage differences between those figures. That means that although New Hampshire rates have increased 28% since 2017, they appear as zero on the graph, because the difference between a number and itself is 0%. And Rhode Island’s 63% increase becomes 127%. The differences are real, but the graph exaggerates them.
Carefully select the start and end points: The governor’s analysis compares January 2017 to February 2024, without taking into account fluctuations in between. The gasoline shortage in 2022-23 that we mentioned a moment ago? New Hampshire had the highest rates in the region for nearly six months during that time. For the most part, New Hampshire rates have been slightly below the regional average, according to EIA data cited by the Globe.
Leave out an important state: Vermont, New Hampshire’s western neighbor, has had lower rates than New Hampshire for most of the period since 2017, despite relatively aggressive clean energy requirements. “If energy and climate goals were driving this trend, why is Vermont so affordable?” asked Sam Evans-Brown, director of Clean Energy New Hampshire, in the Globe article.
While it’s true that New Hampshire’s rates are lower than other states right now, the 2022 price increases suggest there’s a more nuanced conversation about the role of clean energy policy in shaping what clients pay.
“Comparing two moments in time in this way only invites spurious conclusions,” Evans-Brown said.
More clean energy news
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🌲Clarification of climate claims: The Biden administration issues federal guidelines on the use of voluntary carbon offsets, as studies have undermined the credibility that such products provide promised benefits. (New York Times)
🏗️ Industry cleaning: The Biden administration is betting on “green steel” factories in Mississippi and Ohio that will run on clean hydrogen to provide a blueprint for decarbonizing one of the world’s dirtiest industries. (Canary Media)
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