The last time a Republican won a U.S. Senate election in New Jersey, Donald Trump was 26 years old and still a decade away from opening a casino in Atlantic City.
That was in 1972.
Fifty-two years later, Republicans believe they have the best chance in a long time to end the losing streak. They hope that corruption charges against incumbent Sen. Robert Menendez, who is not seeking his party’s nomination, will sour voters on any Democratic rival, or that Menendez could play a damaging role by running as an independent.
And as with most things political these days, Trump looms over the June 4 primary to get the Republican nod. Which makes some Republicans fear it could be the kiss of death in blue New Jersey.
The former president, and presumptive Republican presidential nominee this fall, put it front and center while holding a campaign rally on Wildwood Beach earlier this month. From the stage, he endorsed one of the two leading contenders in the Republican Senate primary, Mendham Parish Mayor and Trump fan Christine Serrano Glassner.
Among the thousands in attendance that day was the other leading candidate: South Jersey hotelier Curtis Bashaw, a resident of nearby Cape May who is considered a more moderate Republican and has the backing of most of the powerful parties. of the county of the state.
“She’s a fantastic woman,” Trump said of Serrano Glassner, whose support is no surprise: Her husband is Republican operative Michael Glassner, who helped run Trump’s last two campaigns, and she was a New Jersey delegate to the convention. Republican National of 2016. .
The former president then derisively called Bashaw a “Christie person.”
This is the former governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, Trump’s former advisor and now his main enemy in the Republican Party. In the past, Bashaw has donated to Christie, who ironically is a longtime resident of Mendham Township, located next to the similarly named Morris County district where Serrano Glassner is mayor.
Serrano Glassner called Trump’s endorsement a “tremendous honor” and launched a television ad promoting it. She has openly embraced Trump’s stances, including his denial of the 2020 election results.
“Donald Trump is the strongest candidate we have,” Serrano Glassner, a 61-year-old second-term mayor, told NJ Advance Media. “That’s why he is the nominee. He needs the strongest Trump candidate to work on his behalf for the people of New Jersey. My opponents are not.”
He has repeatedly accused Bashaw of having previously opposed Trump and called him a “coward” for withdrawing from a recent debate, “just as he is too much of a coward to support Trump.” He has also given his opponent a Trumpian nickname: “Bacaw,” like the sound a chicken makes.
Bashaw downplayed Trump’s endorsement, saying it’s not surprising given Serrano Glassner’s ties to him. He said Serrano Glassner has “no real issues” to run about and that the former president is “the only thing he has ever talked about.”
But Bashaw has also publicly endorsed Trump, after having no record of endorsing him.
“I support President Trump this cycle because I believe we need change,” Bashaw said. “We are totally behind the Republican ticket from top to bottom.”
The 64-year-old developer, who specializes in restoring historic properties, has donated money to candidates from both parties and focused much of his campaign on criticizing Biden and arguing that Congress needs new blood.
“I think we need more outsiders and entrepreneurs in Washington,” Bashaw (pronounced BASH-aw) told NJ Advance Media. “I have a nice life. I have built a successful company. … I just felt like there was a real opportunity right now to do something good.”
Former Tabernacle Vice Mayor Justin Murphy and Navy veteran Albert Harshaw are also running in the Republican primary.
Not surprisingly, most of the attention so far in the battle for Menendez’s seat has focused on the Democratic primary, with U.S. Rep. Andy Kim the favorite for the party’s nomination after first lady Tammy Murphy abandoned her placed after an intense internal war. Labor leader Patricia Campos-Medina and civil rights activist Lawrence Hamm are also running.
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But Trump’s endorsement “shakes up” the Republican primary, said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute of New Jersey Politics at Rider University. He noted that it “appears to have been programmed to gain maximum advantage in Bashaw’s backyard” and “breathed significant new life” into Serrano Glassner’s campaign.
This focus on Trump also underscores a conundrum in Democratic states for a divided Republican Party: Candidates must court Trump-supporting base voters who cast the most votes in the primaries, even when that risks of alienating independent or left-leaning voters in presidential elections. the general elections.
The former president, who is in a rematch with President Joe Biden for the White House, has twice lost by double digits in New Jersey, where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 1 million and polls show he remains widely unpopular.
Rasmussen called this a “pay now or pay later proposition.”
“Doubling down on Trump is how Serrano Glassner and Bashaw demonstrate loyalty and common identity with a few hundred thousand GOP primary voters, and right now, that’s the task at hand,” he said. .
“But the task and the electorate change as soon as the primaries are over, and the same positioning that worked well with highly engaged Republicans is not the same that will work with New Jersey’s larger, bluer overall electorate.”
Just two years ago in Pennsylvania, Trump’s hand-picked Senate candidate Mehmet Oz won a tough Republican primary before losing the election to Democrat John Fetterman. Many in the party blamed Trump for backing the wrong Republican.
In 2018, the last time Menendez’s seat was on the ballot, Republican candidate Bob Hugin, a wealthy pharmaceutical executive, walked a fine line with Trump. He still lost to Menendez by about 11 points despite spending $36 million of his own money. Trump claimed that Hugin’s lack of support cost him the race. But that’s doubtful, since New Jersey Democrats also scored big House election victories in a midterm backlash against Trump.
“While focusing on Trump is the top national political narrative and strategy these days, aligning strongly with Trump has not yet proven to be a winning strategy at the state level in New Jersey,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Polling. of Public Interest. at Rutgers University.
Koning said leaning toward Trump is a “risky strategy for a state seat that has been held by a Democrat for decades and when neither candidate is widely known to New Jersey voters.” Polls show that both Serrano Glassner and Bashaw have low name identity.
Mendham County Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner (left) and hotelier Curtis Bashaw (right) are running for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
Serrano Glassner said he is not worried about a Trump factor, citing the effect of the economy.
“People aren’t going to vote like they normally do,” he said. “They are looking out for their own future.”
Serrano Glassner grew up in Mendham and worked as a chef before entering politics. She left New Jersey to become senior vice president of economic development for New York State and was named regional advocate for the Small Business Administration. She and her husband returned to Jersey, started their own consulting business, and Serrano Glassner later became Mendham’s first female mayor.
He said he is running for the Senate to restore the “integrity” of the seat, noting that people are “looking for someone who really has their back.”
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Serrano Glassner faced scrutiny earlier this year when he said he would not have voted to certify Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump because “there were too many questions” and “too many things going on,” echoing Trump’s baseless claims that the race It was stolen from him. him due to electoral fraud.
Bashaw grew up in Haddonfield and Cherry Hill and spent summers in Cape May. His grandfather, Carl McIntire, was a right-wing radio preacher who had his license stripped by the FCC and then chartered a boat to broadcast from international waters.
“I was 13 years old on this boat and I stood there, in awe of this guy standing up for his freedom,” Bashaw recalled.
After starting his development business, Bashaw gained attention for restoring the historic Cape May Congress Hall, a resort once owned by his grandfather. He never held elected office, but served as executive director of the New Jersey Casino Reinvestment Development Authority under Democratic Gov. Jim McGreevey.
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Bashaw is openly gay and said he is “exhausted of people putting everyone in boxes.”
“I’ve always been Curtis Bashaw,” he said. “I am a lifelong Republican. I love agriculture and gardening. I have a husband. That’s me. “I think one of the really positive things about our campaign is that we are going to expand the Republican tent.”
The two candidates have similar positions on important issues. Both support providing aid to Israel amid the war in Gaza, restoring the SALT cap and clamping down on undocumented immigration at the US southern border.
Bashaw has one big advantage: the party’s coveted endorsement in 14 of the state’s 21 counties. Although a judge eliminated the state’s controversial “county line” design (in which candidates endorsed by party leaders receive preferential placement on the primary ballot) in the Democratic primary, he left it intact for the Republican primary. He also leads Serrano Glassner in fundraising: between $1.1 million and $400,000, according to the most recent figures.
Polls have found that Kim has advantages over Serrano Glassner and Bashaw in potential matchups in November, even with the Menendez controversy.
But Menendez has also said he could run as an independent if he is exonerated, which could siphon votes away from Democrats.
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Brent Johnson can be reached at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on X in @johnsb01.
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